Market Studies
DSL and Broadband Access Markets, 1999-2005

Published: September 1999

$1,650 - Print copy


The broadband access market may represent annual service revenues of $46 billion by 2005. The small/medium business market may represent $32 billion in basic revenues for connectivity, while the residential segment may represent $14 billion in service provider revenues.

Produced by New Paradigm Resources Group, Inc. (Marketed by IGIC)

By 2005, more than 35 million U.S. small and medium businesses, residential consumers and small office/home office customers will be using some form of broadband access. Digital Subscriber Line ("DSL") will represent about 13 million of those lines in service, while cable modems, terrestrial microwave and satellite access methods will claim significant market share as well.

On top of that grow additional enhanced service revenues:

  • Transaction support services (payment)
  • Hosting services (Merchant servers, catalogs, web sites)
  • Design and advertising services
  • Customer contact (voice, e-mail integration)
  • Security services
  • Personalized services
  • Transaction enabling services (shopping cart)
  • Messaging services
  • Virtual Private Networks, remote access, collaboration
  • Systems integration and out sourcing

So basic broadband access provides a foundation for all sorts of enhanced services in the same way that basic dial tone is the foundation service for caller ID, voice mail, conference calling and other high-margin services. But most service providers will have to segment their customers to reap the rewards of the broadband bonanza.

And that is the focus of DSL and Broadband Access Markets, 1999-2005, a new study from NxGen Data Research, Inc., a sister company of New Paradigm Resources Group. Plenty of other information sources are available if you want an overview of technology, surveys of software and hardware suppliers, or profiles of service providers providing DSL.

None of that is our focus. Instead, DSL and Broadband Access Markets, 1999-2005 attempts to provide a model for estimating market share and customer base for all the major broadband access platforms in position to serve the residential and small/medium business market segments. For DSL is but one of the viable access technologies, and cannot be viewed in isolation.

Key to the new report is a "bottoms up" analysis of potential markets, based on a model of households and businesses in operation. The report stratifies potential accounts by employee size (small/medium business) and household income (residence market). That's a vital exercise. Optical fiber access will work for the largest customers and buildings. But copper or wireless access is the only affordable option for consumers and smaller and medium-sized businesses.

The report also takes a "bottom-up" approach to the key variables: PC and Internet use as well as household income and business size. It may be intuitive that wealthier households and larger businesses can more easily justify a broadband connection. But customer appetite, financial and technical means and applications all must converge to create the demand for broadband access.

So DSL and Broadband Access Markets, 1999-2005 provides a detailed model for enterprises of different sizes and homes with diverse income characteristics. The report comes with linked Microsoft Excel spreadsheets that allow you to change key input parameters. That way, "what if" exercises can be conducted. You might want to vary Internet penetration, PC ownership, the number of small businesses within any employee range or assumptions about the penetration of any single access method, for example, to match your own assumptions about the market.

The study also provides company overviews for today’s leading DSL providers, a quick review of access platform strengths and limitations and some sense of the strategic importance of DSL and other broadband access technologies.


Chapter 1: Executive Summary

Chapter 2: Residential Broadband Markets

Chapter 3: The Business DSL Market

Chapter 4: DSL: A Strategic View

Chapter 5: DSL Market: Platforms and Carrier Profiles

  • Covad Communications Company
  • Dakota Services
  • HarvardNet
  • InterAccess
  • Jato Communications
  • NorthPoint Communications
  • Reach Communications
  • Rhythms Netconnections
  • Vitts Corporation

Chapter 6: Broadband Access Platforms

Appendix: Forecast Spreadsheets