Market Studies

5G 2020: What’s Real?
What’s Smoke? What’s Mirrors?

Published: February 15, 2020

Overview | TOC | TOF

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Overview:

We read a great deal about 5G in the local papers and hear about it almost every night on TV news. Most of what we read and hear is, at best, confusing and, too often, misleading and downright wrong!

   Carrier A claims to be the first in the country;

   Carrier B claims to be the first in the country;

   Carrier C claims the fastest service:

   One carrier is suing another carrier for false advertising;

   This company is barred from the US because of spying accusations;

   We see claims for 5G, even at the Super Bowl;

   Major carriers are talking, but not investing.

What’s going on?

So what is the truth? What exactly is 5G’s status? Who is really deploying and investing like they are talking? What developmental issues remain? Who is going to pay for this development and deployment?

This comprehensive Report considers these issues and ultimately suggests the likely scenario for 5G deployment in this country. All based on our current viewpoint from about one year of deployment experience in the US. The Report also describes and explains 5G from many perspectives, including objectives, frequency plans, architecture, and a discussion of the vendors involved in the various parts of 5G infrastructure - phones, radios, and chipsets.

However, the primary burden of this Report is to forecast and quantify the many aspects of 5G activity in the US, distinguishing between the types of 5G The Report attempts to make sense of the competing and conflicting information we are receiving daily about this subject. The Report gives a great deal of consideration to the question of investment expenditures (capital expenditures) for this service and the mixed messages coming from the major US carriers. A projection is made of the likely path forward for the major carriers as regards 5G investment. The final main section builds on the previous parts of the Report to provide specific forecasts for 5G in the US and the impact of those forecasts on overall network requirements. Those forecasts include:

The fundamental forecast deployment scenario and these other forecasts support or build on that scenario:

  • US Traffic – Total and Mobile
  • US Mobile Carriers Forecast Growth
  • 5G Phones Availability and Sources
  • IoT 5G Impact
  • Autonomous Vehicles 5G Impact
  • Over Build/ Cross-Boundary Forecast
  • US 5G Penetration Forecast by Major Service
  • 5G Overall likely implementation plan and timeline

The Report includes a discussion of the recent purchase by Apple of Intel 5G assets and the likely impact that will have on Apple 5G developments. Also included is an analysis of the Department of Justice’s approval of the T-Mobile/Sprint merger, the implications for a Dish 5G network, and the very recent subsequent re-assignment of this issue to the courts. Included is the analysis of the impact of 5G deployment of each of these current legal events.

The Report presents, in detail, IoT and Autonomous Vehicles as two possible use cases often mentioned for 5G. This Report also examines the possibility of much higher levels of competition for very high-speed Internet (and other fixed services) enabled through 5G fixed wireless.

Appendixes provide details of the possible use cases and discuss the history of cellular development in the US. They also describe in some detail how we have moved step-by-step along the path from one generation of mobile communication to the next. For reference, the Appendixes also include various data and traffic issues.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents 3
Table of Figures 8
INTRODUCTION 10
WHAT IS 5G? 12
   Rationale for 5G 12
   Developmental Needs 14
     Cross-band Phones 14
     Interior Penetration of mmWave 14
     Infrastructure Deployment Aids 15
     Support Systems 15
   Types of 5G 15
     Millimeter-wave 5G 16
     Mid-band 5G 16
     Location Types of 5G 16
      Stationary 16
      Mobile 17
   Economics 18
WHAT ARE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF 5G? 19
   Higher Capacity 19
   Higher Data Rate 20
   Lower Latency 21
   Massive Device Connectivity 22
   Reduced Costs 24
   Consistent Quality of Experience Provisioning 25
STATUS OF 5G - PRIMARY US CARRIERS 26
   Verizon Wireless 26
    Verizon 5G Deployment Status 27
   AT&T Mobility 28
    AT&T 5G Deployment Status 29
   T-Mobile US 30
    T-Mobile US 5G Deployment Status 31
   Sprint Corporation 32
    T-Mobile US 5G Deployment Status 33
   T-Mobile and Sprint Merger 34
   Dish Network 35
INVESTMENTS FOR 5G 36
   What Investments Are Involved in Infrastructure? 36
    Spectrum 36
    Cell Site Work and Additions 36
    Transmission 37
    Network Core 37
    Support Systems 37
  How Much Will Infrastructure Investments Cost? 38
  How Much Are the Major Telcos Going to Spend on 5G Infrastructure? 38
ARCHITECTURE OF 5G 42
  5G Network Cooperation 43
  5G Frequency Plans 43
  Various Cell Sizes for 5G Networks 44
  5G Network Architecture and Application Illustrations 45
  5G Infrastructure Components 47
  Small Cell Antennas 47
    MIMO 48
    MIMO and 5G 48
    Massive MIMO Spectrum Multiplying Advantage 49
  Fiber 51
  Verizon Fiber Plan for 5G 52
  Phones 53
  5G Phones 54
  Quick Look 54
    Android Based Phones 54
    Apple 55
    Samsung 55
    LG 55
    Huawei 56
    Other Customer Access Devices 56
  Radio Equipment Manufactures 56
    Huawei 56
    Ericsson 57
    Nokia 57
    ZTE 58
    Samsung 58
  Chip Set Vendors 58
    Intel 58
    Qualcomm 59
    Samsung 59
    Apple 60
    Huawei 60
5G FORECASTS 61
   Forecast Deployment Scenario 61
    2019 61
    2020 62
    2021 62
    2022 and Later 62
   Timeline 62
   Capital Forecast for 5G 63
   Individual Area Forecasts 64
    Mobile Traffic Forecast 64
    US Mobile Carriers Forecast 66
    5G Penetration Forecast – US 67
    Smartphone Growth Forecast for 5G - the US 70
    5G Phone Introduction Plans 71
    5G US Penetration Forecast - Phones 72
    Major Use Cases of 5G – Penetration Forecast 73
     IoT – Internet of Things – 5G Penetration Forecast 73
    Autonomous Vehicles – 5G Penetration Forecast 74
    Forecast Network Impact of Autonomous Vehicles and IoT 75
    Over-Build Forecast 75
   Forecast Summary 76
    Traffic: 76
    US Mobile Carriers: 76
    Phones: 76
    5G Penetration: 76
    IoT: 77
    Autonomous Vehicles: 77
    Overbuild/ Cross-Boundary: 77
APPENDIX I - HISTORY OF GENERATIONS OF CELLULAR PHONES IN THE USA 78
HISTORY OF CELLULAR PHONES IN THE US 78
   What are the Generations? 78
    1st Generation 79
     1G Standards 79
    2nd Generation 79
     2G Standards 80
    3rd Generation 80
     High-Speed Downlink Packet Access - 80
     3GPP Long Term Evolution, the Precursor of LTE Advanced – 81
     Evolved HSPA 81
   3G Standards 81
    4th Generation 82
   LTE Advanced 82
   MIMO 82
   4G Standards 83
    5th Generation 83
     5G Standards 83
APPENDIX II. MAJOR USE CASES FOR 5G: IOT, AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES, OVERBUILD 85
   IoT - The Internet of Things 85
    Availability of a Network for Connection – a Major Problem with IoT 86
     Cellular IoT Connections Explained: NB-IoT vs. LTE-M vs. 5G and More 86
     How did Cellular IoT come to Be? 87
     Cellular IoT is meant to meet the requirements of low-power, long-range applications. 88
      Cat-1 88
      Cat-0 88
      Cat-M1/Cat-M/LTE-M 88
      NB-IoT/Cat-M2 88
      EC-GSM (formerly EC-EGPRS) 88
     5G as an IoT Connection Solution 89
    How Does 5G Enable IoT? 89
   Autonomous Vehicles 89
    Autonomous Vehicles Benefits 89
    Current Versions of Autonomy 90
    Issues with Autonomous Development 90
     Safety 91
     Business Case 91
     Availability of a Network for Interconnection 92
   Overbuild - 5G as a Major Competitive Tool 93
    Overbuilding 94
    Cross-Boundary Service 94
   Competitive Implications 94
APPENDIX III - LIST OF US CELLULAR CARRIERS 96
   Contiguous US and Hawaii] 99
   Alaska 99
APPENDIX IV - TRAFFIC STATISTICS RELATIONSHIPS 100
   SONET/SDH Data Rates 101
APPENDIX V DATA TRAFFIC FUNDAMENTALS 103
   Internet Traffic Calculations 104
    Bits and Bytes 105
    Transfer Rate 105
    Busy Hour Traffic 106
    Protocol Efficiencies 107
    Statistical Multiplexing 107
    Peaking 107
APPENDIX VI THE LIGHTWAVE NETWORK SERIES OF REPORTS 109
   The Lightwave Network 109
   The Lightwave Series of Reports 110
   General Reports on the Network 111
   General Market Reports 111
   Specific Systems Reports 114

Table of Figures

Figure 1, 5G Download Speeds 13
Figure 2, Fixed Wireless 5G 17
Figure 3, 5G Capacity Capabilities 19
Figure 4, Theoretical 5G Speed 20
Figure 5, Standards Evolution from 4G to 5G 21
Figure 6, Lower Latency Triangle - 5G 22
Figure 7, IoT Sensing Points Explosion 22
Figure 8, 5G Connection Capabilities 23
Figure 9, US Major Mobile Carriers (Subscribers) 26
Figure 10, Verizon Coverage Map 27
Figure 11, AT&T Coverage Map 28
Figure 12, T-Mobile Coverage Map 30
Figure 13, Sprint Coverage Map 32
Figure 14, Size of Major Mobile Carriers after Merger '000s (end of 2017- 2019 data) 34
Figure 15, Major Telco Capital Expenditures 2013-2018 38
Figure 16, 5G Overall Layout 42
Figure 17, Cell/Technology Cooperation 43
Figure 18, 5G Frequency Allocation – US 44
Figure 19, Cell Types from Macro to Small 45
Figure 20, 5G Pictorial Architecture 46
Figure 21, 5G Infrastructure Applications 46
Figure 22, Different Types of Antennas to be Used with 5G 47
Figure 23, MIMO Multipath Propagation Increases Thru-Put 48
Figure 24, Depiction of Massive MIMO 48
Figure 25, Example of MIMO Antenna 50
Figure 26, 5G Layout Showing Fiber Connections 51
Figure 27, Graphical Illustration of Fiber's Place in a 5G Network 52
Figure 28, Smartphone Growth in US 53
Figure 29, 5G Phones and Carrier 54
Figure 30, 5G Forecast Timeline 63
Figure 31, Capital Expenditure Forecast 64
Figure 32, Major Data Traffic Sources 65
Figure 33, US Mobile Phone Data Traffic 66
Figure 34, US Major Mobile Carriers Forecast 66
Figure 35, 5G Penetration - One Forecast 67
Figure 36, 5G Penetration Forecast by Major Application 68
Figure 37, Smartphones as a Proportion of Total US Mobile Phones (all types) 70
Figure 38, Landlines are a Dying Bread 70
Figure 39, US Smartphone Shipments 72
Figure 40, Smartphone Penetration Forecast 72
Figure 41, IoT Sense Point Forecast 73
Figure 42, Network Impact of Autonomous Vehicles and IoT 75
Figure 43, Wireless Penetration by Generation and Forecast 78
Figure 44, Network Generations Timeline 84
Figure 46, Cellular Approaches to IoT Connections 86
Figure 47, Goals of 5G 89
Figure 48, Some Current Partially Autonomous Versions 90
Figure 49, Verizon's NOOF FiOS Service 94
Figure 50, 5G Cross Boundary Service Example 95
Figure 51, Fixed Broadband Service Providers - US 97
Figure 52, Fixed Wireless Depiction 98
Figure 53: Traffic/Speed Relationships 101
Figure 54: Example of Various Traffic Sizes 102
Figure 55, Multiples of Byte 102
Figure 56, Wavelength to Frequency Conversion Chart 103
Figure 57, Sonet/SDH Conversions 103
Figure 58: New Transfer Rate Forecast 105
Figure 59: Summary of Concepts 108
Figure 60, Lightwave Network 109