Market Studies

Electric Vehicles in the United States -
Market and Technology Forecast to 2030

Release: February 2022

Overview | TOC | TOF

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Overview:

What are EVs?
What’s the difference between a BEV and a hybrid?
Are EVs pretty much like my regular car?
What are the pros and cons of EVs?
How many choices of EVs are there?
Will the US actually be producing 50% EVs by 2030 as President Biden has mandated?
Are EVs really economical?
Are many EVs being sold?
What is the long-term market for EVs?


These questions and many others are answered in detail in this report.

This report is about electric cars in the United States, in all their flavors. Like many things we think of as new, electric cars are actually rather old. Their origins go back to the beginnings of anything that could be called a ‘car’ in the 1800s. Now, one of the most reported technology/consumer goods item in America is the topic of electric vehicles (EVs). Unfortunately, a great deal in the popular press is reported by people with little or no background in electric vehicles. Much of the writing is from reporters that are generalists and report on various topics as they come up. Also, a lot of the reporting comes from ‘car guy’ reporters, who are standard vehicle experts, but who are not familiar with the vocabulary or technology of electric vehicles. While the author of this report has been a car guy all his life, he also brings his electrical engineering (BS EE, PE) background and many years as a researcher to the report.

This report intends to provide an unbiased but critical view of the subject. It will spend a good bit of time understanding the components of an electric vehicle, the terminology involved, and include a good look at the technologies underlying the field. We will also develop complete economic models and use them to compare the various alternatives on an economic basis.


After understanding the subject, the report will examine the pressures on this market, both pro, and con. As with much in our lives today, this subject has regrettably become politicized. We will acknowledge that politicization but we will try not to let political opinions cloud our comments.

A common misconception about EVs is ‘free transportation’ (much like the misconception of ‘free power’ from windmills). One section will present a series of economic models for EVs to shed light on the actual comparative costs. These models will try to understand the financial issues involved in owning EVs compared to ICE (internal combustion engine vehicles – our standard car). In addition, the models will provide estimates of the penalty or benefit from owning an EV vs. owning an ICE.

We will examine the car market in the US and look at the positives and negatives for the EV market and its history. Based on this examination, the report will develop a complete set of forecasts to 2026 and to 2030 for the market. In addition, we will perform sensitivity analysis to look at how the results could change if various assumptions prove false. These forecasts will encompass the entire car (including light trucks) US market and the market history.

Table of Contents

ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN AMERICA – TABLE OF CONTENTS2
ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN AMERICA – TABLE OF FIGURES6
ABOUT THE AUTHOR – CLIF HOLLIDAY8
OTHER RECENT REPORTS BY CLIF HOLLIDAY10
INTRODUCTION11
HISTORY OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES13
TYPES OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES16
BEVs16
HEVs17
PHEV18
EV Performance19
Where are the EVs?20
  EV Sales by Type21
BEVS24
BEVs' Components 24
  Batteries 24
Battery Capacities 24
Lithium-ion Batteries 25
Nickel-metal Hydride Batteries 27
  AC Motors 27
AC Induction Motors 28
PMSM (Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor) 29
Synchronous Reluctance Motor (SynRM) 29
BMW AC Synchronous Brush Motor 30
  Brakes and Regenerative Braking 31
One Pedal Driving 33
  Differentials and Multiple AC Motors 33
  Controllers and Inverters 33
  Chargers and Cables 34
  Chargers and Charging Time 34
    Level 1 Chargers 35
    Level 2 Chargers 35
    Level 3 Chargers 35
  Calculating Charging Time 36
  Where are the Chargers? 38
Versions of the BEV 40
  Single AC Motor 40
  Multiple AC Motors 41
Examples of BEVs 44
HEVS47
HEV Components 47
  Batteries 47
  AC Motors 47
  HEV – Single Motor - FWD 47
Examples of HEVs 48
  HEV Sales 49
PHEVS 50
Plug-In HEV (PHEV) Components 50
Examples of PHEVs 52
PHEV and HEV Sales 55
COMING EVS 56
ECONOMIC MODEL– EVS 59
Battery Electric Vehicles – BEVs – Economic Model 59
  BEVs Sensitivity Analysis 61
Hybrid Electric Vehicles – HEVs – Economic Model 64
  HEV – Sensitivity Analysis 67
Plug-In Electric Vehicles – PHEVs – Economic Model 68
  Sensitivity Analysis – PHEVs 70
Economic Analysis – Combined View BEVs, HEVs, PHEVs 72
Overall Economic Model Conclusions 74
  Concluding Comment on Comparative Economics 74
EV ISSUES76
Range Anxiety 76
High First Cost 78
Fire Issue 78
Other Issues 79
NEEDED IMPROVEMENTS TO EVS 80
  Fire Safety 80
  Battery Improvements 80
    NanoBolt lithium tungsten batteries 80
    Zinc-manganese oxide batteries 81
    Organosilicon electrolyte batteries 81
    Gold nanowire gel electrolyte batteries 81
    String Cell batteries 81
EV MARKET AND FORECASTS 83
The Overall US Car Market 83
Forecast for US Car Market 84
  Dollar Value of US Car Market 85
  Major Manufactures Feeding US Car Market 86
EV Forecast 87
  Current Market 87
  EV Forecasts by Type 88
  Pressures on EV Sales 93
    Corporation Commitments - Car Manufacturers 93
        GM (2030) 93
        Ford (2030) 93
        Stellantis (2030) - Chrysler 93
        Toyota(2030) 94
        Jaguar (2025) 94
        Nissan (2028) 94
        Bentley (2030) 94
        Lotus (2030) 94
        Mini (2030) 94
        Volvo (2030) 94
    Corporation Commitments – Other Entities 95
        FedEx 95
        ZEV2030 (a California non-profit) 95
        Washington State 95
        Massachusetts (State) 95
        New York (State) 95
        LYFT 95
    US Government (Biden Administration) Support of EVs 95
        Biden Announced 2030 Target for EVs 95
        Joint Office to Develop National Charging Grid 95
        Efficiency and Emissions Standards 96
  Counter-Pressures on EV Sales 96
    Political Issues 96
    Climate Change Views 97
    The Market 97
    Car Dealers Reluctance to Sell 98
  Summary of Pressures and Counter Pressures on EV Sales 98
  Manufacture Commitments and Their Impact 100
FO`RECASTS 102
EV (BEV and PHEVs) Forecasts 102
HEV Forecast 105
Forecast Summary 108

Table of Figures

Figure 1, Abbreviations for this Report 12
Figure 2, Best Selling BEVs - US – 2021 17
Figure 3, Comparison of HEV to PHEV Sales Through 2020 19
Figure 4, Location of the EVs 2020 Data 20
Figure 5, People per EV by State 2020 Data 21
Figure 6, EV US Sales By Type 22
Figure 7, Battery Charging Chemistry 26
Figure 8, Motor Speed Equations 27
Figure 9, AC Motor Efficiency 28
Figure 10, Regenerative Braking - in Normal Motion 31
Figure 11, Regenerative Braking - Driver Lifts Foot 32
Figure 12, Charging Times for Popular EVs 36
Figure 13, Charging Time Formula 37
Figure 14, Charging Time Base Equation 37
Figure 15, Charging Time Calculation 37
Figure 16, Location of Chargers 39
Figure 17, Location of Charging Points by State 2020 39
Figure 18, FWD BEV, Single Motor 40
Figure 19, BEV, Dual Motor, AWD 42
Figure 20, BEV, Three Motors, AWD 43
Figure 21, List of BEVs – US 44
Figure 22, HEV Single Motor, FWD 48
Figure 23, List of HEVs - US 49
Figure 24, HEV Historical Sales 50
Figure 25, PHEV Single Motor, FWD 51
Figure 26, List of PHEVs – US 52
Figure 27, HEV vs. PHEV Sales 55
Figure 28, Future EVs 56
Figure 29, BEV vs. ICE Economic Model 60
Figure 30, Sensitivity Analysis of BEV Economic Model 62
Figure 31, BEV Economic Model Conclusions 64
Figure 32, Economic Analysis of Lexus ES - ICE vs. HEV 66
Figure 33, Sensitivity Analysis of Lexus ES - ICE vs. Hybrid 67
Figure 34, HEV Economic Analysis Conclusions 68
Figure 35, Economic Analysis of Chrysler Pacifica - ICE vs. PHEV 70
Figure 36. Sensitivity Analysis of Chrysler Pacifica - ICE vs PHEV 71
Figure 37, PHEV Economic Analysis Conclusions 72
Figure 38, Comparative Chart of Combined BEV, HEV, and PHEV Economics 73
Figure 39, Overall Conclusions from Economic Analysis 74
Figure 40, Changes Forced by BEVs 78
Figure 41, US Car Market 83
Figure 42, US Car Market Forecast 84
Figure 43, US Car Market in Dollars 85
Figure 44, Car Manufactures Selling in the US 86
Figure 45, US Car Sales - 2005-2021 87
Figure 46, Chart of EVs Sales and 2030 Projection 88
Figure 47, EV Sales Projection based on Five Years Actual 89
Figure 48, Projection of Car Market, based on 'return to normal' 90
Figure 49, Cars Sales Projected to 2030 91
Figure 50, Chart of Total Car Sales vs. EV Sales, Projected to 2030 92
Figure 51, Biden 2030 Mandate vs. Current Market 99
Figure 52, US 2021 Sales by Manufacturer - Top Eight 100
Figure 53, Impact of Corporate Commitments on US Car Market 101
Figure 54, US Sales Chart with Manufacturers' Commitments 102
Figure 55, Forecast for 2030 – EVs (BEVs + PHEVs) - Summary 103
Figure 56, Forecast for 2026 104
Figure 57, 2026 Forecast EVs (BEVs + PHEVs) – Summary 105
Figure 58. Car Sales vs. HEV Sales 106
Figure 59, HEV Forecast 2026 Summary 107
Figure 60, HEV Forecast Chart for 2030 107
Figure 61, HEV 2030 Forecast Summary 108
Figure 62, Forecast Summary Points 108
Figure 63, Forecast Summary Chart 109