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Wireless Market :
Annual report on: GSM, CDMA, Paging, Mobile satellite, m-commerce, 3G, SMS, Edge, WAP, GPRS, Mobile data, Fixed-mobile substitution, WLL, telemetry, Bluetooth, PMR, GPS, location services. Report contains industry issues and strategies, government policies, spectrum developments. Report also contains: Technology information, Global overview, Trends and Developments, Business Strategies, User statistics, Revenues and forecasts.
Overview:
While mobile communications is frantically trying to transform itself into a data business, the killer application remains voice. Around 95% of all revenue generated by mobile operators is based on voice, the other 5% being messaging, with a less than 0.5 % coming from data services such as General Packet Radio Service (GPRS), Wireless Application Protocol (WAP), Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution (EDGE), Bluetooth, 802.11, and the rest of all those new acronyms. New innovative use of Short Message Services (SMS), both in permission based marketing models and in combination with TV, are looking more promising. However, all of these services will not reach more than 15% of total mobile revenue.
GSM is still the major global mobile platform. Other platforms such as Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) and its variants have support in some countries, but it is expected to remain less used than GSM globally, even into the Third generation (3G) era. Korea is the most exciting example of new mobile data services, but so far it is the only country that is scoring success. Even in Japan it 3G is not catching on and, despite the i-mode success, the net money gains remain questionable.
While 3G does offer excellent infrastructure features, there is little chance that operators will be able to ask premium prices for services over this new infrastructure. Unless there is a network need for it there is little chance that 3G will be deployed on a large scale.
The overarching problem is that after many years of high growth, the mobile market is slowing, despite the increased level of competition and rapidly falling prices. Many markets have now reached saturation point.
Fixed wireless services are slowly being replaced in some areas by mobile services. The release of higher frequency spectrum has allowed for the development of new technologies, and hence new applications. Wireless local distribution technologies such as Wireless Local Loop (WLL), Wireless Local Area Network (WLAN, Wi Fi, 802.11)) and Bluetooth have shown potential. The problem here is the lack of solid business models. The smaller players dont have the scale to become substantial players and the exiting players will be wary of cannibalising their existing mobile and fixed broadband services. The WLAN does have the potential to grow into a disruptive technology that at least temporarily (next 5-years) could upset the current broadband market.
Satellites have not advanced much during the early 00s. GEOs are still providing good service, but LEOs and MEOs have shown a constant stream of financial disasters. It is not expected that this situation will change for several years to come.
Table 3 Internet population by region
| Technology |
Users (millions) |
| GSM |
680 |
| CDMA |
160 |
| TDMA |
85 |
| 3G |
130 |
| Analogue |
35% |
| Netherlands, USA, Switzerland, Sweden, Austria, Japan |
20-25% |
| Spain, Germany, Finland, UK |
10-15% |
| Australia |
7% |
| New Zealand |
4% |
(Source: Paul Budde Communication, Wireless Market)
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Table of Contents
1. MARKET ANALYSIS 2003
1.1 Executive summary
1.1.1 Mobile infrastructure
1.1.2 Mobile services
1.1.3 Mobile data services
1.1.4 Telemetry
1.1.5 3G
1.1.6 Satellites
1.1.7 Vehicle Monitoring Systems
1.1.8 Wireless broadband technologies
1.1.9 Broadband WLANs, 802.11, Wi-Fi
2. SPECTRUM
2.1 Spectrum developments
2.2 Radio spectrum utilisation
2.3 Satellite spectrum
2.4 Technological developments
2.5 Market developments
3. THE INFRASTRUCTURE
3.1 Analogue and Digital
3.1.1 Wireless communication
3.1.2 The explosion of cellular mobile communication
3.1.3 Major Digital (2G) cellular technologies
3.1.4 Wireless IP
3.1.5 IP over mobile networks (VOIP)
3.1.6 Mobile payphones
3.1.7 Remote access
3.1.8 Celcos
3.2 GSM
3.2.1 Introduction
3.2.2 GSM developments
3.2.3 GSM technology
3.3 CDMA and TDMA overview
3.4 CDMA
3.4.1 History and overview
3.4.2 Statistical data
3.4.3 Market realities
3.4.4 CDMA SIM (smartcard)
3.4.5 CDMA will not challenge GSM
3.4.6 cdmaOne
3.4.7 CDMA2000
3.4.8 Technical
3.5 TDMA
3.5.1 Market development
3.6 Wireless Local Loop (WLL)
3.6.1 Introduction
3.6.2 Emerging markets
3.6.3 Statistical overviews
3.6.4 Forecasts
3.6.5 Developments in WLL
3.6.6 Analysis of key issues
3.6.7 WLL market analysis
3.6.8 WLL technology
3.7 Bluetooth
3.7.1 Introduction
3.7.2 Analysis
3.7.3 Forecasts
3.7.4 Bluetooth technology
4. MOBILE VIRTUAL NETWORK OPERATORS
4.1 Marketing considerations
4.2 New business models
4.3 MVNO in Hong Kong
4.4 Virgin Mobile
4.5 The Carphone Warehouse
4.6 Value Telecom
5. PREPAID SERVICES
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Regional overview
5.3 Market revenues and charges
5.4 Subscriber statistics
5.5 Prepaid technologies
5.6 Prepaid standard proposed
6. MARKETING AND BUSINESS DEVELOPMENTS
6.1 Fixed-mobile convergence
6.1.1 Incentives to converge
6.1.2 Substitution well and truly underway
6.1.3 Pricing key to success
6.1.4 More mobile than fixed a country update
6.1.5 Ubiquitous networks
6.1.6 Advanced networks
6.2 Mobile the missing link
6.2.1 Mobile forced to move into commodity territory
6.2.2 Mobile companies failed to jump the S-curve
6.3 New business models for mobile
6.3.1 Restructuring overdue, but wont happen soon
6.3.2 Choices have to be made
6.3.3 Vertical integration or permission based
6.3.4 Urgent need for new revenue streams
6.3.5 Customer profiling
6.4 The lack of calling party pays in North America
6.5 Nokias mobile vision
6.6 The ITU Mobile/Internet Index
7. COMPETITION AND REGULATIONS
7.1 Mobile competition
7.1.1 Key issue for 2002: termination rates
7.1.2 The effects of liberalisation and competition
7.1.3 Increase in mobile competition
7.2 Roaming
7.2.1 Global roaming introduction
7.2.2 Users frustrated with mobile operators
7.2.3 No optimal routing from GSM MoU
7.2.4 Market predictions
7.2.5 Cellular Roaming Alliance (CRA)
7.3 Mobile number portability
7.3.1 Different flavours
7.3.2 Global overview
7.3.3 Key issues
7.3.4 Delaying tactics
7.3.5 Portability strategies
7.3.6 Technical issues
7.4 Mobile fraud
8. SUBSCRIBER STATISTICS AND FORECASTS
8.1 Subscriber growth
8.1.1 US behind Europe in mobile usage
8.1.2 Slowing mobile subscriber growth
8.1.3 Inactive users
8.1.4 Regional overview
8.2 Global forecasts
8.2.1 Ericsson
8.2.2 Stategis: growth in mobile has peaked
8.2.3 Baskerville
8.2.4 EMC
9. REVENUE OVERVIEW
9.1 Calls, usage and call charges
9.1.1 Usage
9.1.2 Shift in mobile consumer base
9.1.3 OECD price basket
9.2 Average revenue per user (ARPU)
9.2.1 ARPU developments
9.2.2 Stabilisation of ARPU
9.2.3 Third generation ARPU
9.2.4 Forecasts
9.3 Mobile call charges
10. MOBILE DATA
10.1 Overview and analysis
10.1.1 Introduction
10.1.2 Forecast
10.1.3 Analysis - 2003
10.1.4 Analysis 2002
10.1.5 Residential applications: permission based marketing
10.2 Dedicated systems
10.2.1 Background
10.2.2 Market trends
10.2.3 Applications
10.2.4 Key technologies
10.3 Short Message Service (SMS)
10.3.1 Introduction
10.3.2 SMS applications
10.4 GPRS
10.4.1 Introduction
10.4.2 General Packet Radio Services (GPRS)
10.5 High-Speed Circuit Switched Data (HSCSD)
10.5.1 Introduction
10.5.2 HSCSD networks
10.5.3 Internet based HSCDS
10.5.4 New developments
10.6 EDGE
10.6.1 Technology
10.7 IMODE
10.8 Wireless Access Protocol (WAP)
10.8.1 Introduction
10.8.2 The WAP hype
10.8.3 Analysis of the WAP hype
10.8.4 Technology
11. TELEMETRY
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Remote monitoring
11.3 Remote sensing satellites
11.3.1 Telecontrol
11.4 Computer assisted meter reading
11.4.1 New business model required (analysis)
11.5 Revenue forecasts
11.6 Market research data from strategy analytics
12. 3G
12.1 Standards
12.1.1 Historic overview
12.1.2 International mobile telecommunications 2000 (IMT-2000)
12.1.3 Wideband Code Division Multiple Access (W-CDMA)
12.1.4 CDMA2000
12.1.5 TDMA-EDGE
12.1.6 Multimedia Environment for Mobiles (MEMO)
12.1.7 Multimedia Mobile Access Communication
12.1.8 Fourth and fifth generation plans
12.2 Technical issues
12.2.1 Introduction
12.2.2 The new network concept of 3G
12.2.3 Evolution paths to 3G
12.2.4 Standards issues
12.2.5 Spectrum allocations
12.3 Marketing issues
12.3.1 What is 3G?
12.3.2 Shifting paradigms
12.3.3 The future of 3G is in communication
12.3.4 Business realities
12.3.5 The essential role that 3G can play
12.3.6 The future of 3G
12.3.7 Multiple terminal applications
12.3.8 Revenue forecasts 2005, 2010
12.3.9 Regional overview
13. M-COMMERCE
13.1 The new future of M-Commerce
13.2 M-commerce analysis
13.2.1 Doubts about short-term m-commerce
13.2.2 New business models required
13.2.3 M-commerce on specialised devices
13.2.4 No large residential market soon
13.2.5 Good prospects for business market
13.3 M-commerce market predictions
13.3.1 Ovum
13.3.2 The Boston Group
13.3.3 Frost and Sullivan
13.3.4 A.T. Kearney
13.4 Worlds first mobile-commerce system
13.5 Interpath from Baltimore
13.5.1 Mobile payment forum (from the credit card giants)
13.6 Wireless advertising
14. SATELLITES
14.1 Satellite networks
14.1.1 Introduction
14.1.2 Major players
14.1.3 Revenue statistics
14.1.4 Forecasts
14.1.5 Geostationary, LEO, MEO and HEO satellites
14.1.6 Direct broadcasting services
14.1.7 Regulations
14.2 Ka-Band
14.2.1 Preparing for a global data network
14.2.2 What is Ka-Band
14.2.3 Market issues
14.2.4 Internet-in-the-sky
14.2.5 Network issues
14.2.6 Industry issues
14.2.7 Market forecasts
14.3 Ka-Band - players and projects
14.3.1 Major players
14.4 Satellite services
14.4.1 Mobile satellite services
14.4.2 Overview of major LEO/MEO consortiums
14.5 Global navigation satellite systems
14.5.1 Products of the cold war
14.5.2 History (pre-GPS)
14.5.3 Geographic information services
14.5.4 Euteltracs
14.5.5 Galileo
14.6 Global Positioning System (GPS)
14.6.1 Introduction
14.6.2 Differential GPS
14.6.3 Applications
14.7 Location-based services (LBS)
14.7.1 Applications
14.7.2 Location-based technologies
14.7.3 GSM+GPS personal navigation phone
15. VEHICLE MONITORING SYSTEMS
15.1 Introduction
15.2 Commercial success still years away
15.3 Commercial vehicle operations systems
15.3.1 Introduction
15.3.2 The car as a wireless platform
15.3.3 Projects
15.3.4 Automated vehicle control
15.4 Electronic toll collection (etc)
15.4.1 Smartcards
15.4.2 Enforcement system
15.4.3 Examples of projects
15.4.4 Automated Heavy Vehicle Identification and Tracking System
15.5 Traffic Information and Management Systems
15.5.1 Introduction
15.5.2 City of Belfast
15.5.3 City of Sydney
15.5.4 Intelematics from Motoring Clubs
15.6 Advanced driver information systems
15.6.1 Advanced Vehicle Control Systems (AVCS)
15.6.2 Route Guidance System
15.6.3 Linking in with mobile navigation systems
15.7 Telematics over 3G
15.7.1 Introduction
15.7.2 Nissan Motors
15.7.3 Toyota
15.7.4 Honda
15.8 Transportation
15.8.1 The global traffic jam
15.8.2 Parking management
15.8.3 SmartCard transport
15.9 Fleet Communications
15.9.1 Trunked radio
15.9.2 Digital Fleet Communications
15.9.3 Terrestrial Trunked Radio (a.k.a. Trans-European Trunked Radio)
15.9.4 Standards and technologies
16. WIRELESS BROADBAND
16.1 Introduction
16.1.1 Future needs
16.2 Mobile-based technologies
16.2.1 Fixed/mobile telephone substitution
16.2.2 GPRS/3G
16.3 Fixed wireless technologies
16.3.1 Introduction
16.3.2 Bypassing the fixed network bottleneck
16.3.3 Fixed wireless broadband advantages
16.4 Local Multipoint Distribution Services (LMDS)
16.4.1 Introduction
16.4.2 Technology
16.4.3 Analysis
16.4.4 Market statistics
16.5 Multichannel Multipoint Distribution System (MMDS)
16.6 Industry boost for MMDS and LMDS
16.7 Digital TV
16.8 WLANs, 802.11, Wi-Fi
16.8.1 Wireless LANs
16.8.2 Analysis
16.8.3 Market forecasts
16.8.4 WLAN technology
16.8.5 Spread spectrum
16.9 Wireless broadband technology
16.9.1 Introduction
16.9.2 IEEE 802.11 - Wi-Fi
16.9.3 HiperLAN/2 and HiSWANa
16.9.4 Bluetooth
16.9.5 IEEE 802.15 WPAN
16.9.6 Ultra-Wideband UWB
17. WIRELESS - TERMINOLOGY EXPLAINED
17.1 Wireless related terminology
17.1.1 3G Third generation
17.1.2 AMPS - advanced mobile phone service
17.1.3 Analogue
17.1.4 Bandwidth
17.1.5 Bluetooth
17.1.6 Cell
17.1.7 Cellular
17.1.8 Cellular telephone
17.1.9 CDMA - code division multiple access (or cdmaOne)
17.1.10 CDPD - cellular digital packet data
17.1.11 Coverage area
17.1.12 CT2 - cordless telephone (second generation)
17.1.13 CT3 (DCT 900)
17.1.14 CTS - cordless telephone system
17.1.15 D-AMPS - digital advanced mobile phone system
17.1.16 DCS 1800 - Digital Cellular System/Digital Cordless Standard
17.1.17 DECT - digital european cordless telephone
17.1.18 Digital
17.1.19 Dualband (db)
17.1.20 Dual mode
17.1.21 EDGE - enhanced data for GSM evolution/environment
17.1.22 EFR - enhanced full rate
17.1.23 ETACS - extended total access communication systems
17.1.24 Fixed wireless
17.1.25 GPS - global positioning system
17.1.26 GPRS general packet radio service
17.1.27 GSM - global system for mobile communications
17.1.28 HSCSD high-speed circuit switched data
17.1.29 iDEN -integrated digital enhanced network
17.1.30 IMT-2000 - international mobile telecommunications-2000
17.1.31 Last mile
17.1.32 LBS - location-based services
17.1.33 LMCS Local Multipoint Communications Systems
17.1.34 LMDS - local multipoint distribution service
17.1.35 M-commerce
17.1.36 MCS Multipoint Communications Systems
17.1.37 MMDS Multichannel Multipoint Distribution Service
17.1.38 MSS Mobile Satellite Services
17.1.39 N-AMPS Narrowband Advanced Mobile Phone Service
17.1.40 Narrowband
17.1.41 NMT Nordic Mobile Telephone System
17.1.42 PACS Personal Access Communications System
17.1.43 Pager
17.1.44 PCS Personal Communications Services
17.1.45 PDA - Personal Digital Assistant (hand held computer)
17.1.46 PDC Personal Digital Cellular
17.1.47 PHS Personal Handyphone System
17.1.48 Prepaid services
17.1.49 Roaming/roaming agreement
17.1.50 Satellite
17.1.51 SIM Subscriber Identity Module
17.1.52 SIM cards
17.1.53 Smartphone
17.1.54 SMS Short Message Service
17.1.55 Spectrum
17.1.56 Spread spectrum
17.1.57 TDMA Time Division Multiple Access
17.1.58 TETRA Terrestrial Trunked RAdio
17.1.59 UMTS Universal Mobile Telecommunications System
17.1.60 Unified messaging
17.1.61 Voicemail
17.1.62 VSAT Very Small Aperture Terminal
17.1.63 WAP - Wireless Application Protocol
17.1.64 W-CDMA Wideband Code Division Multiple Access
17.1.65 WLL Wireless Local Loop
17.1.66 Wideband
18. GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS
Exhibit 1 What is spectrum?
Exhibit 2 Frequency bands and their usage
Exhibit 3 International frequency assignment plan 2110-2450MHz bands (excerpts)
Exhibit 4 Key mobile events 1996-2002
Exhibit 5 Cellular mobile phone features and capabilities
Exhibit 6 Key technology enablers
Exhibit 7 Worldwide Second Generation Digital communication systems
Exhibit 8 Technologies used by region
Exhibit 9 Business travellers
Exhibit 10 CDMA operators 2002
Exhibit 11 Major CDMA infrastructure manufacturers
Exhibit 12 TDMA (D-AMPS) countries
Exhibit 13 Swedish Railway trial
Exhibit 14 Comparative characteristics of a MVNO
Exhibit 15 Global mobile virtual network operators
Exhibit 16 Prepaid charges
Exhibit 17 International roaming global statistics
Exhibit 18 Overview of countries with numbering plans
Exhibit 19 NP: key issues
Exhibit 20 GSM security features
Exhibit 21 Worldwide PDA market 2001 (According to Gartner)
Exhibit 22 SMS worldwide snapshot
Exhibit 23 Comparison of mobile messaging technologies
Exhibit 24 Comparison: SMS, EMS, MMS by Ovum
Exhibit 25 Comparison: SMS, MMS by Mobile Streams
Exhibit 26 Theoretical and realistic speeds GPRS, EDGE and UMTS (Kb/s)
Exhibit 27 GPRS advantages
Exhibit 28 Networks that have launched HSCSD 2002
Exhibit 29 Now here is a good WAP application
Exhibit 30 The challenges of mobile Internet access
Exhibit 31 The third generation systems
Exhibit 32 Cell structures for third Generation mobiles
Exhibit 33 TD-SCDMA benefits
Exhibit 34 TD-SCDMA advantages to the mobile network operator
Exhibit 35 Third Generation user data rates
Exhibit 36 GSM 3G evolution path
Exhibit 37 Operators Harmonisation Group
Exhibit 38 Overview of 3G activities around the globe
Exhibit 39 Global Mobile Commerce Forum (GMCF)
Exhibit 40 Major fixed satellite service operators
Exhibit 41 Satellite dishes
Exhibit 42 Frequency spectrum allocation for common commercial US SATCOM bands
Exhibit 43 Satellite-based ISPs
Exhibit 44 Mobile satellite services
Exhibit 45 Iridium brought down to earth A case study
Exhibit 46 GPS accuracy specifications
Exhibit 47 - Wireless cards
Exhibit 48 - Licence plate recognition system
Exhibit 49 Virtual beacons
Exhibit 50 Intelligent traffic lights
Exhibit 51 Advantages of Digital Fleet Communications
Exhibit 52 Comparison of access platforms advantages and disadvantages
Exhibit 53 LMDS countries 2001
Exhibit 54 - Medium Speed WLANs (transmission rates in the range of 256kb/s to 2Mb/s)
Exhibit 55 - Higher Speed WLAN (transmission rates greater than 10Mb/s)
Exhibit 56 Radiatas wireless engine
Exhibit 57 About spread-spectrum wireless communications
Exhibit 58 802.11a and b
Exhibit 59 Wi-Fi certification
Exhibit 60 IEEE 802.11a/h 5GHz frequency allocations
Table 1 Market share various technologies 1996; 1998; 2002
Table 2 Market penetration, various technologies 2001
Table 3 Growth GSM market 19942004
Table 4 Frequency bands for GSM
Table 5 CDMA worldwide subscribers 1997-2002
Table 6 Top 10 TDMA operators by subscribers 2000
Table 7 Summary of WLL activity late 1990s
Table 8 WLL infrastructure revenue 1997-2001
Table 9 Wireless Local Loop subscribers per region 2000
Table 10 Bluetooth devices forecasts 2000-2005
Table 11 Prepaid subscribers by region 2001-2004
Table 12 Global prepaid subscribers and revenue forecasts 1998-2003
Table 13 Prepaid service around the world 1998 and 2001
Table 14 Fixed vs mobile telephony 1991-2002
Table 15 Countries with more mobile than fixed telephone subscribers 2001
Table 16 Top 20 Mobile/Internet Index ratings - worldwide
Table 17 International calls made from or terminated on mobile phones 2000
Table 18 Mobile market share 1992-2002
Table 19 International overview of NP
Table 20 GSM subscribers by region and growth percentage 2000-2002
Table 21 Mobile subscribers by technology 2000-2002
Table 22 Mobile Global statistics snapshot December 2002
Table 23 Number of months to gain 5 penetration points
Table 24 Top countries ranked by cellular penetration 1998; 2000; 2001
Table 25 Growth of mobile by region (millions of subscribers) 1993-2001
Table 26 Cellular mobile subscribers by country 2001
Table 27 Cellular mobile subscribers regional share 1998; 2000; 2002
Table 28 Worldwide cellular population 1993-2005
Table 29 Mobile subscriber forecasts 2001; 2005; 2010
Table 30 GSM subscribers by region 1998-2006
Table 31 Varying forecasts for mobile phone subscribers 2002-2006
Table 32 Comparison mobile fixed business usage 1996 and 2005
Table 33 Shift in mobile consumer base (UK example) 1994 and 2000
Table 34 The mobile charges ($) in selected OECD countries (ARPU) 2000
Table 35 Forecast mobile trends 2000-2007
Table 36 Global mobile operator revenues by region 2001-2005
Table 37 National mobile call comparisons 2001; 2002
Table 38 Forecast mobile data revenues 2005, 2010
Table 39 Global wireless Internet forecasts made in 2000 2001-2003
Table 40 Total dedicated mobile data users 1995-2001
Table 41 Mobile data applications 2000-2005
Table 42 Global SMS messages sent 19992002
Table 43 SMS Volume by Region 2001; 2002
Table 44 Forecast growth of one-way vs advanced messaging 1999-2004
Table 45 MMS usage by region 2002
Table 46 MMS launches by region 2002
Table 47 Forecast revenues for SMS, EMS and MMS by region 2000-2006
Table 48 Numbers intending to use WAP for wireless purchases
Table 49 Main Telemetry categories in Europe by 2004
Table 50 Telemetry market Vertical market share forecast 2003
Table 51 Mobile Internet access subscriptions 2005 and 2010
Table 52 Mobile Internet access revenues 2005 and 2010
Table 53 Business multimedia messaging service revenue 2010
Table 54 Forecast markets for 2.5 and 3G products in 2006
Table 55 Third Generation subscribers by 2005 (by region)
Table 56 Top 10 countries 2.5G and 3G markets 2006
Table 57 3G spectrum licence cost per capita
Table 58 Predicted global m-commerce revenues 2001-2005
Table 59 Mobile e-commerce users by region 2005
Table 60 Revenues satellite market 1996-2002
Table 61 Top ten satellite system operators - 2000
Table 62 Forecast satellite launches 2001-2020
Table 63 Commercial GEO* satellites aging profile - 2002
Table 64 Comparison of orbit for global mobile personal communications systems
Table 65 Commercial GEO industry growth 1979-2009 (selected years)
Table 66 Value of satellite ISP link marketplace 1998-2001 and 2006
Table 67 Total value of the IP over satellite market 1998-2000
Table 68 Global capacity of transponders 1997, 1999 and 2002
Table 69 Revenue predictions 1998-2005
Table 70 LMDS bundling market opportunities
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