|
|
 |
|
2003 BROADBAND MARKET :
Annual report on access technologies: highspeed Internet, cable modems, Fibre-to-the-home (FTTH), xDSL, LMDS, broadband wireless, 802.11 (WiFi), KA-band satellites. Report also contains: Technology information, Global overview, Trends and Developments, Business Strategies, User statistics, Revenues and forecasts, Industry policies, Regulatory; research and marketing issues.
Overview:
Whereas the Internet opened up the opportunity for a vast increase in communication and the ready availability of information, education, e-commerce and entertainment, its further development is being hampered by the slowness of the existing infrastructure networks. The huge demand for increased speed has lead to the development of broadband technologies.
Although there is this huge and growing demand for broadband, it is slow in being met. This is predominantly due the resistance by the incumbent telcos that want to maximise the life of their existing networks, and to the lack of suitable marketing models and content. Most national governments have been unable to influence the incumbent telcos to speed up their activities. Korea and Japan are notable exceptions to this, and their development of broadband leads the world.
Over the past years, incumbent telcos have been moving into the services and content areas, with their totally different marketing and management needs. This has slowed up the broadband process even further. There is a gradual move by governments around the world to separate the national carriers’ high-technology activity of providing infrastructure from the high-marketing activities of providing content and services.
Due to the slowness of the incumbents to provide suitable broadband infrastructure, it is interesting to see the efforts of some cities and large communities to provide their own infrastructures. This is allowing them to develop new local applications such as health care, job creation, export etc.
With the gradual relaxation by the telcos, the constantly falling prices, the advent of new applications and the adoption of new marketing approaches, the availability of broadband is poised to expand quickly.
Cable was the first successful platform to provide broadband services, but required the laying of entirely new networks. Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) technologies require only modifications to existing networks, are therefore cheaper to implement, and are overtaking Cable. Other delivery platforms such as Ka band satellite, Fibre-to-the-Home (FTTH), broadband wireless, wireless Local Area Networks (LAN) etc are being developed and will assist in the eventual total availability of broadband.
The Report provides overviews of these developments and analyses of many of these trends and developments, allowing organisations to pursue those business opportunities that add to their bottom line, rather than chasing industry and technology hype. A range of statistics provides essential data for the development of business strategies and business plans.
Table 3 – Internet population by region
| Country |
Internet HH penetration |
| Korea |
85% |
| Taiwan |
80% |
| Hong Kong |
70% |
| Belgium, Singapore |
40% |
| Denmark, Canada |
35% |
| Netherlands, USA, Switzerland, Sweden, Austria, Japan |
20-25% |
| Spain, Germany, Finland, UK |
10-15% |
| Australia |
7% |
| New Zealand |
4% |
(Source: Paul Budde Communication, International Broadband Market)
-
-
Table of Contents
1. BROADBAND MARKET ANALYSIS – 2003
1.1 Executive summary
1.1.1 Broadband vision
1.1.2 An overview
1.1.3 Overview and analysis – markets
1.1.4 Market analysis by Paul Budde
1.1.5 Global policies
1.1.6 Broadbanding local communities
1.1.7 Services
1.1.8 Content networks
1.1.9 Multimedia
1.1.10 Access technologies
1.1.11 xDSL
1.1.12 Cable telephony and cable modems
1.1.13 Ethernets and FTTH
1.1.14 Wireless broadband
1.1.15 Ka Band
1.1.16 Infrastructure
1.1.17 Industry developments
2. BROADBAND – A VISION FOR NATIONAL POLICIES
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Visionary approach is needed
2.3 Significant economic and social benefits
2.4 National models
2.5 The roles of the players
2.5.1 Vision and cooperation pays off
2.5.2 Governments
2.5.3 The industry
2.5.4 National telecoms operators
2.6 Rural and regional users
2.7 How to get there?
2.7.1 Step 1 (always-on, affordable high-speed Internet access)
2.7.2 Step 2 (content-rich applications)
2.8 Broadband – a concept not a technology
2.8.1 The broadband experience
2.8.2 Broadband will move up to 50Mb/s
2.8.3 Infrastructure competition and infrastructure sharing
2.9 The costs of developing broadband
2.10 National Broadband Agendas
2.11 Broadband targets
2.12 Broadband campaign
3. AN OVERVIEW
3.1 Definitions
3.2 Thirty years in the making
3.2.1 Early developments dating back to 1970s and 1980s
3.2.2 The 1994 debacles
3.2.3 Government initiatives during the 1990s
3.2.4 Internet: missing link in the information highway
3.2.5 Global - Broadbanding Local Communities
3.3 Broadband – glimpses of the next stage
3.4 Policies and principles
3.5 Broadband services
3.5.1 Evolution not revolution
3.5.2 Broadband uncertainties
4. TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS - MARKETS
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Services are following high-speed access – 2003
4.2.1 VOD is growing
4.3 Prelude to massive growth – 2002
4.3.1 High speed outpaces dial up
4.3.2 Start of the early boom
4.3.3 Statistical overview from the OECD
4.4 Residential market
4.4.1 Internet households – the early adopters
4.4.2 User statistics
4.4.3 Strategy Analytics forecast – 2003
4.5 Business market
4.6 Market and revenues forecasts
4.6.1 Yankee Group
4.6.2 MRG: 80 million world broadband users by 2004
4.6.3 ARC Group
4.6.4 eMarketer
4.6.5 US forecasts
4.6.6 Ovum forecast
4.6.7 Reviewing a 1996 Datamonitor Forecast in 2002
4.7 Market trends
4.7.1 Another look at ‘always-on high-speed’
4.7.2 What broadband users want
4.7.3 Broadband users want more services
4.7.4 Summary
4.8 Broadband usage and attitudes study
5. MARKET ANALYSIS BY PAUL BUDDE
5.1 Broadband x Data Centre predictions are coming true
5.2 Market issues
5.2.1 The long wait for broadband
5.2.2 Over-promised and under-delivered forecasts
5.2.3 The price has to be right
5.2.4 User demand or industry prescription
5.2.5 And the leaders are….
5.2.6 Critical mass by 2003/2004
5.3 Users in the driver’s seat
5.3.1 Customers first want lower access prices
5.3.2 Customers not operators indicate what is value-added
5.3.3 Permission based marketing
5.4 Broadband infrastructure
5.4.1 From information highway to information superhighway
5.4.2 Urgent need for open networks
6. GLOBAL POLICIES
6.1 Introduction
6.2 The deteriorated state of affairs by 2002
6.2.1 Less competition
6.2.2 The stranglehold of vertical integrated telcos
6.2.3 Are disasters needed before we see changes?
6.2.4 3G problems
6.2.5 Regulators will need to lift their game
6.2.6 Structural separation under discussion
6.3 Economic policy principles
6.4 Global Information Infrastructure Commission
6.5 Towards a Global Information Society (OECD)
7. BROADBANDING LOCAL COMMUNITIES
7.1 Framework for local government policies
7.2 Cities are taking charge
7.3 Visionary approach is needed
7.4 Significant economic and social benefits
7.5 The Local Council model
7.6 The roles of the players
7.6.1 Vision and cooperation pays off
7.6.2 Local Government
7.6.3 The industry
7.6.4 Broadband operators
7.7 Outlying areas
7.7.1 Economic non-viable areas
7.7.2 Local governments need to be involved
7.7.3 Councillors and bureaucrats need to be connected first
7.7.4 Pre-empt political action
7.7.5 Subsidies?
7.7.6 Cooperation with operators
7.8 How to get there?
7.8.1 Step 1 (always-on, affordable high-speed Internet access)
7.8.2 Step 2 (content-rich applications)
7.9 Broadband – a concept not a technology
7.9.1 The broadband experience
7.9.2 Broadband will move up to 50Mb/s
7.10 A city broadband agenda
7.11 Broadband campaign
7.12 City marketing
7.12.1 The concept of Telematica
7.12.2 Three strategic elements of telematica
7.12.3 City systems centre
7.12.4 High-speed communities
7.13 Examples of tele-cities
8. BROADBAND SERVICES
8.1 Convergence creates new demand for services
8.2 Services and content – key to success
8.3 Killer applications
8.4 Videophones for the blind!
8.5 Hollywood-on-demand
8.5.1 Twenty years in the making
8.5.2 Important killer-app.
8.5.3 DVD pirates triggered the studios
8.5.4 Movielink
8.6 Probing for demand
8.6.1 TV vs PC
8.6.2 PC still the main device
8.6.3 Next frontier – Video on Demand
8.7 Unmet demand
8.8 The 12 Principles of Killer App Design
9. CONTENT NETWORKS
9.1 Failing to see the tsunami coming
9.2 Market statistics
9.2.1 Content networking
9.2.2 Content and document management services market
9.3 Entry strategy is high-speed Internet
9.4 Content enterprise networks
9.5 The broadband Internet grid
9.6 Most incumbents have already lost the race
9.7 Intelligent content storage, routing and distribution
9.8 Business models for those who want to see them
9.9 Open networks with permission-based models
9.10 Looking for the wrong content
10. MULTIMEDIA
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Multimedia over networks
10.2.1 From VOD to ADSL and Internet and VoD
10.2.2 Business market applications
10.2.3 Multimedia access systems
10.2.4 Multimedia networking
10.3 Optical discs
10.3.1 CD-ROM – interactive TV on the PC
10.3.2 From CD-I to DVD
10.3.3 High Density Digital Video Disc (DVD)
10.3.4 Potential for DVD
10.3.5 DVD growth forecasts
10.3.6 DVD consoles
10.4 Digital video recorders
10.5 The future of optical drives
11. INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS
11.1 Convergence - IP applications
11.1.1 Technology forecast: 2002-2004
11.1.2 Converging networks
11.1.3 IP=IT
11.1.4 IP - enhanced services
11.1.5 Deploy IP or else …
11.2 Converging industries
11.2.1 From telecommunications to applications networks
11.2.2 Telcos and Cable TV operators
11.2.3 Broadcasters and the Internet
11.2.4 IT - key to the telecommunications industry
11.2.5 The brave new e-world
11.3 Industry structure
11.3.1 Industry re-alignment
11.3.2 Industry focus: marketing
11.3.3 Technology tools: Internet and ISDN
11.3.4 National broadband structure
11.4 Industry consortia
11.4.1 Introduction
11.4.2 Broadband Forum
11.4.3 Digital Audio Visual Council – DAVIC (Historic)
11.4.4 Digital Audio/Video Interactive Decoder – DAVID
11.4.5 DVB – DAVIC
11.4.6 European Telecommunication Standards Institute (ETSI)
11.4.7 IMTC
11.4.8 International Standards Organisation (ISO)
11.4.9 Internet Telecommunications Protocol Initiative (TIPIA)
11.4.10 MCCOI (historic)
11.4.11 Multimedia Home Platform (DVB initiative)
11.4.12 Multimedia Services Affiliate Forum (MSAF) (Historic)
11.4.13 TeleManagement Forum
11.4.14 TINA-C (Historic)
11.4.15 TV Anywhere
11.5 Analysis of the multi-utility market
11.5.1 The need to expand beyond electricity
11.5.2 Various business models
11.5.3 Costing and timeframes
11.5.4 Multi-services companies
11.5.5 Utilities important factor in facilities-based telecoms competition
11.5.6 UtiliTel national infrastructure cooperation
11.5.7 Start with existing network
11.5.8 Broadbanding of local communities
11.5.9 Conclusions
12. BROADBAND INFRASTRUCTURE
12.1 Industry trends
12.1.1 From narrowband to broadband Internet
12.1.2 Interactive multimedia
12.1.3 Push from telecommunications market
12.2 Industry focus: marketing
12.2.1 Money is in the residential market
12.2.2 Price elasticity is well above one
12.3 Network trends
12.3.1 Insatiable need for bandwidth
12.3.2 Bandwidth top priority for businesses
12.3.3 Bandwidth trading
12.3.4 Fixed will be wireless, wireless will be fixed
12.4 Fibre-to-the-Home is beginning
12.5 Voice over Broadband (VOBB)
13. INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS
13.1 Convergence - IP applications
13.1.1 Technology forecast: 2002-2004
13.1.2 Converging networks
13.1.3 IP=IT
13.1.4 IP - enhanced services
13.1.5 Deploy IP or else …
13.2 Converging industries
13.2.1 From telecommunications to applications networks
13.2.2 Telcos and Cable TV operators
13.2.3 Broadcasters and the Internet
13.2.4 IT – key to the telecommunications industry
13.2.5 The brave new e-world
13.3 Industry structure
13.3.1 Industry re-alignment
13.3.2 Industry focus: marketing
13.3.3 Technology tools: Internet and ISDN
13.3.4 National broadband structure
13.4 Industry consortia
13.4.1 Introduction
13.4.2 Broadband Forum
13.4.3 Digital Audio Visual Council – DAVIC (Historic)
13.4.4 Digital Audio/Video Interactive Decoder – DAVID
13.4.5 DVB – DAVIC
13.4.6 European Telecommunication Standards Institute (ETSI)
13.4.7 IMTC
13.4.8 International Standards Organisation (ISO)
13.4.9 Internet Telecommunications Protocol Initiative (TIPIA)
13.4.10 MCCOI (historic)
13.4.11 Multimedia Home Platform (DVB initiative)
13.4.12 Multimedia Services Affiliate Forum (MSAF) (Historic)
13.4.13 TeleManagement Forum
13.4.14 TINA-C (Historic)
13.4.15 TV Anywhere
13.5 Analysis of the multi-utility market
13.5.1 The need to expand beyond electricity
13.5.2 Various business models
13.5.3 Costing and timeframes
13.5.4 Multi-services companies
13.5.5 Utilities important factor in facilities-based telecoms competition
13.5.6 UtiliTel national infrastructure cooperation
13.5.7 Start with existing network
13.5.8 Broadbanding of local communities
13.5.9 Conclusions
14. ACCESS TECHNOLOGIES
14.1 From Internet to Information Highway
14.2 Different access strategies
14.2.1 Cable TV companies
14.2.2 The telcos
14.2.3 Multi-service utilities
14.3 Overview of major access technologies
14.4 Alternative access providers
15. xDSL
15.1 Technology
15.1.1 Common characteristics of xDSL
15.1.2 ADSL
15.1.3 xDSL technology and terminology
15.1.4 VDSL
15.1.5 VODSL – Voice over DSL
15.1.6 Standards
15.2 Marketing xDSL
15.2.1 Conquering the world
15.2.2 The growth of DSL
15.2.3 DSL market statistics
15.2.4 VDSL
15.2.5 Competition in the local loop
15.2.6 Technical and marketing issues
15.2.7 Forecasts and statistics
16. CABLE TELEPHONY AND CABLE MODEMS
16.1.1 Cable telephony
16.1.2 Cable modems
16.1.3 Cable modems vs xDSL
17. ETHERNET AND FTTH
17.1 Optical communications
17.2 Future infrastructure – strategic analysis
17.2.1 Future scenario planning
17.2.2 From telecommunications to information highway
17.2.3 Converging networks
17.2.4 The telecommunications market in ten years’ time
17.3 Fibre-based access
17.3.1 Back on the agenda by 2005
17.3.2 Early trials
17.3.3 Massive changes in network management
17.3.4 Migration patterns
17.3.5 Full Service Access Network initiative (historical)
17.4 LAN Ethernet
17.5 Optical Ethernet networks
17.5.1 Alternatives to DSL and HFC networks
17.5.2 Technologies
17.5.3 The realities of Ethernet
17.6 ITU sets global standard for metro networks
17.7 Metro Ethernets in the Asia Pacific
17.7.1 Market overview
17.7.2 Australia
17.7.3 China
17.7.4 Hong Kong
17.7.5 Korea
17.8 Blown Fibre
17.8.1 Introduction
17.8.2 System overview
17.8.3 Key components
17.8.4 Applications
18. WIRELESS BROADBAND
18.1 Technologies
18.1.1 Introduction
18.1.2 Mobile-based technologies
18.1.3 Fixed wireless technologies
18.1.4 Local Multipoint Distribution Services (LMDS)
18.1.5 Multichannel Multipoint Distribution System (MMDS)
18.1.6 Industry boost for MMDS and LMDS
18.1.7 Digital TV
18.2 WLANs, 802.11, Wi-Fi
18.2.1 Wireless LANs
18.2.2 Analysis
18.2.3 Road warriors (Analysis)
18.2.4 Market forecasts
18.2.5 WLAN technology
18.2.6 Spread spectrum
19. SATELLITE-BASED BROADBAND (KA-BAND)
19.1 Preparing for a global data network
19.2 What is Ka-Band
19.2.1 C-band
19.2.2 Ku-band
19.2.3 Ka-Band
19.3 Market issues
19.3.1 Marketing is key to success
19.3.2 Business applications will drive the market
19.4 Internet-in-the-sky
19.4.1 Introduction
19.4.2 Internet opportunities for ISPs
19.4.3 Some of the first services
19.4.4 Internet pitfalls
19.4.5 Market forecast
19.5 Network issues
19.5.1 Technical developments
19.5.2 Alternative network solutions
19.6 Industry issues
19.7 Market forecasts
19.7.1 Overall revenue
19.7.2 Applications
19.7.3 Residential markets
19.7.4 Business market
19.8 Ka-Band players and projects
19.8.1 What is Ka-Band
19.8.2 Major players
20. GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS
Exhibit 1 - Key points broadband
Exhibit 2 – Information highway in 1858
Exhibit 3 – Superhighway principles
Exhibit 4 – Evolutionary developments
Exhibit 5 – Key starting-points for local broadbanding
Exhibit 6 – Key broadbanding steps
Exhibit 7 – Some application bit rates
Exhibit 8 – From Kilobit to Yottabit
Exhibit 9 – Information highway offerings
Exhibit 10 - The issue will be network capacity
Exhibit 11 – Some application bit rates
Exhibit 12 – Multimedia developments
Exhibit 13 – IP based enhanced services
Exhibit 14 – Vision of the future – 2000 to 2025
Exhibit 15 – Communities, not telcos, should take the lead
Exhibit 16 – Broadband infrastructure drivers
Exhibit 17 – DAVIC (Digital Audio/Visual Industry Committee/Council)
Exhibit 18 – DVB – DAVIC members, March 2001
Exhibit 19 - Key technical areas being addressed by ETSI in 2002
Exhibit 20 – IMTC’s mission
Exhibit 21 – MSAF members 1999
Exhibit 22 – TINA-C
Exhibit 23 – Listed energy information/energy management services
Exhibit 24 - Business models
Exhibit 25 – Telco technologies for utilities
Exhibit 26 – Selection of utilities pursuing telecommunications
Exhibit 27 – Three classes of utilities/carriers
Exhibit 28 – E-services will improve our lifestyle
Exhibit 29 – IP based enhanced services
Exhibit 30 – Vision of the future – 2000 to 2025
Exhibit 31 – Communities, not telcos, should take the lead
Exhibit 32 – Broadband infrastructure drivers
Exhibit 33 – DAVIC (Digital Audio/Visual Industry Committee/Council)
Exhibit 34 – DVB – DAVIC members, March 2001
Exhibit 35 - Key technical areas addressed by ETSI in 2002
Exhibit 36 – IMTC’s mission
Exhibit 37 – MSAF members 1999
Exhibit 38 – TINA-C
Exhibit 39 – Listed energy information/energy management services
Exhibit 40 - Business models
Exhibit 41 – Telco technologies for utilities
Exhibit 42 – Selection of utilities pursuing telecommunications
Exhibit 43 – Three classes of utilities/carriers
Exhibit 44 – Key elements of the information highway infrastructure
Exhibit 45 – Key information highway techniques
Exhibit 46 – Strengths and weaknesses of existing networks with respect to the global information infrastructure
Exhibit 47 – Some application bit rates
Exhibit 48 – Overview of physical distribution networks for high-speed services
Exhibit 49 – Comparison of access platforms’ advantages and disadvantages
Exhibit 50 – SDSL and ADSL compared
Exhibit 51 – xDSL Technology and Terminology
Exhibit 52 – Comparison of ADSL and HFC systems
Exhibit 53 – The Universal ADSL Working Group (UAWG) – 2000
Exhibit 54 – 3DSL and PoDSL
Exhibit 55 - VDSL technology
Exhibit 56 – Overview of major cable modem operators and projects outside USA
Exhibit 57 – Will ADSL be fast enough?
Exhibit 58 – Traditional networks vs Optical Fibre Networks
Exhibit 59 – Comparison of access platforms’ advantages and disadvantages
Exhibit 60 – LMDS countries – 2001
Exhibit 61 - Medium Speed WLANs (transmission rates in the range of 256kb/s to 2Mb/s)
Exhibit 62 - Higher Speed WLAN (transmission rates greater than 10Mb/s)
Exhibit 63 – Radiata’s wireless engine
Exhibit 64 – About spread-spectrum wireless communications
Exhibit 65 – 802.11a and b
Exhibit 66 – Wi-Fi certification
Exhibit 67 – Frequency spectrum allocation for common commercial US SATCOM bands
Exhibit 68 – Satellite-based ISPs
Table 1 – Broadband subscribers by country – 2002
Table 2 – Broadband access amongst Internet households – 2001
Table 3 – US broadband households forecast – 2002-2008
Table 4 – Residential European broadband penetration – 2002
Table 5 – US residential and SME broadband lines – 2001-2002
Table 6 – Broadband households in the US – 2000-2004
Table 7 – Interactive revenues by country – 1996-2001
Table 8 – Service providers’ revenues received from interactive TV subscribers and services – 1995; 1998; 2001; 2004
Table 9 – 1996 revenue estimates of number of interactive video services in Europe – 1994-2005
Table 10 – Take up time to reach 10 million customers in mass market
Table 11 – Broadband access amongst Internet households – 2003
Table 12 – Market share film output
Table 13 – Killer applications revenues – 2005
Table 14 – Enhanced Services – what US broadband users are interested in
Table 15 – US broadband users willing to pay* for Enhanced Services
Table 16 – Information highway services – level of interest
Table 17 – What is the service worth to you?
Table 18 – Interactive services, subscribers will pay for
Table 19 – What does it mean? (DSL, 1Gb/s, DWDM)
Table 20 – DVD household penetration forecasts – 1998-2005
Table 21 – Growth of network traffic – 1999-2003
Table 22 – The new bandwidth providers – 2001 overview
Table 23 – Growth of Network Traffic – 1999-2003
Table 24 – Access technologies: worldwide market share – 1998; 2002
Table 25 – Roll-out costs – residential information highway
Table 26 – World top ten countries for DSL – 2001-2002
Table 27 – Worldwide DSL lines by region – 2002
Table 28 – DSL subscribers by operator – mid-2001
Table 29 – Regional breakdown DSL broadband deployment figures – 2001
Table 30 – Cable telephony subscribers – 2002
Table 31 – Cable modems in OECD – 1999-2001
Table 32 – Cable modem forecasts – 1996; 2005
Table 33 – Regional overview – 2000
Table 34 – Broadband subscribers by country– June 2002
Table 35 – LMDS bundling market opportunities
Table 36 – Value of satellite ISP link marketplace – 1998-2001; 2006
Table 37 – Total value of the IP over satellite market – 1998-2000
Table 38 – Global capacity of transponders – 1997; 1999; 2002
Table 39 – Revenue predictions – 1998-2005
|
|
|
