December 13, 2001

TOP STORIES

--Tricom forecasts 16% increase in revenue

--US FCC agrees to reallocate airwaves for wireless services

--Ciena Corporation reports 27% increase in fourth quarter revenue to $367.8 million

ASIA PACIFIC

--Philippine's Digitel borrows $90 million for mobile from French bank

--SingTel and Optus to combine three of its businesses

--SK Corp. launches car navigation system using cellphones

--South Korea's cellphone sales market to increase by color handsets

--Singapore Airlines puts in-flight e-mail service on hold

--Fujitsu sells US subsidiary division

BUSINESS

--Applied Materials to cut 1,700 employees

--USA Networks and Vivendi Universal in talks on exchanging assets

--Cable & Wireless to appeal fine for blocked international calling

DEALS

--Ericsson wins $55 million 3G deal from Inmarsat

--Time Warner Telecom wins high-speed data deals

--APT Satellite and Alcatel Space industries in $118 million deal

EUROPE

--German cartel offices extends ruling on DT cable sale

--COLT Telecom offers customers wavelength control

--Mediaset to sell its 9% stake in Blu to British Telecommunications

--Turkey's Aycell plans launch of its commercial operations on December 14

FINANCIAL REPORTS

--IDT reports $158.3 million net loss in first quarter

--CenturyTel narrows 2001 earnings and revenue forecasts

INTERNET

--Sum Microsystems and IBM security hole in software expose computers

--Visionics opens Washington DC office in January, to increase work force by 6%

--Yahoo offers $436 million bid for HotJobs

LATIN AMERICA

--Brazil's Embratel requests local licenses from Anatel

--Brazil Telecom pays $25 million for 12% stake in iBest, to launch portal and free Internet access

MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS

--Palm to buy ThinAirApps for $19 million in Palm common stock

--Scansoft completes purchase of speech technology assets of Lernout & Hauspie

MOBILE & SATELLITE

--Logica and Orange in multimedia messaging services trials

NETWORK INFRASTRUCTURE

--Check Point Software Technologies and Nokia expand security deal

PEOPLE IN THE NEWS

--Genesys Conferencing CEO of its North American operations resigns, will not be replaced

--internap Network Services chief operating officer Mike Vent steps down

REGULATORY

--SonicBlue files patent infringement lawsuit against TiVo

WIRELESS

--Sprint PCS Group to offer downloadable ring tones

--Arch Wireless seeks court approval to keep Motorola pact

--Boston-area average wireless phone rates drop 2.7% in October

INDIA

--Bharti may postpone IPO

--AirTel to use Nortel solution

--Sasken plans expansion

IGI BOOKS

--Practical Data Communications by Roger L. Freeman

__________________

TOP STORIES

--Tricom forecasts 16% increase in revenue

Tricom, a long-distance carrier, expects revenue growth for this year and 2002, but will cut back on the deployment of a Central American network. The company, one of the few Latin American carriers with a licensed subsidiary in the US, expects 2001 revenue to grow 9% between $240 million and $245 million. The company offers long-distance services in the US, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

It expects 2002 revenues in range of $280 million to $290 million, an increase of about 16%. The growth will be increased by expected strong local service and wireless customer additions, higher average customer revenue, as well as the continued expansion of its data service offering. The company forecasts EBITDA of $85 million to $90 million in 2001. Excluding cable operations, 2002 EBITDA is expected in range of $105 million and $15 million, an increase of about 20%. In addition, the company canceled its plans to deploy a Central American network to focus on Panama. It does not expect capital expenditure for the expansion into other countries in the region.

--US FCC agrees to reallocate airwaves for wireless services

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) agreed to reallocate for wireless services 48 megahertz of spectrum that is currently used by 266 television broadcasters, mostly independent stations. The FCC began the process for selling the airwaves by Sept. 30, 2002 as the broadcasters occupying channels 52 to 59 move from analog signals to digital signals. Television broadcasters are supposed to move off the analog airwaves to digital spectrum by the end of 2006 or when the penetration rate for digital television reaches 85%, whichever comes first. However, industry and government officials have said the 2006 deadline will not likely be met due to the high prices of digital televisions and converters. The FCC previously approved a plan to encourage private arrangements for television broadcasters occupying channels 60 to 69, to move off the airwaves so they can be sold to wireless companies. However, the agency declined to take such a step with those occupying channels 52 to 59.

--Ciena Corporation reports 27% increase in fourth quarter revenue to $367.8 million

Ciena Corporation reported fourth quarter revenue of $367.8 million ended October 31, 2001. These results represent an increase of more than 27% as compared to revenue of $287.6 million last year. The adjusted net income per diluted share for the fourth quarter, after excluding a goodwill impairment charge, restructuring costs, deferred stock compensation charges, payroll taxes on stock option exercises and amortization of intangibles and goodwill was $17.1 million, or 5 cents, earnings per diluted share. Its net loss for the period was about $1.8 million, or a loss of $5.51 per diluted share.

For the fiscal year 2001, exclusive of a goodwill impairment charges, restructuring costs, deferred stock compensation charges, in-process research an development, provision for doubtful accounts, settlement of accrued contract obligations, payroll taxes on stock option exercises, amortization of intangibles and goodwill, Ciena's adjusted net income totaled $195.3 million, or 60 cents, earnings per diluted share, an increase of 94% compared to fiscal year 2000 adjusted net income of $100.8 million ,or 34 cents, earnings per diluted share. Its net loss for the fiscal year 2001 was about $1.79 million, or a loss of $5.75 per diluted share.

ASIA PACIFIC

--Philippine's Digitel borrows $90 million for mobile from French bank

Digital Telecommunications Philippines (Digitel) borrowed $90 million from a French bank to finance its move into mobile telephony. The foreign commercial loan will cover an initial requirement for building a mobile network. The company did not say which bank had lent the sum or under what terms. Digital said it plans to break a virtual duopoly in the Philippines' mobile market held by Philippine Long Distance Telephone and Globe Telecom. The company is also seeking a foreign investor to back its mobile venture, which it plans to launch by mid-2002, and also plans to raise $210 million for the network through a convertible bond issue. The bond issue had been delayed due to uncertain market conditions, but there was no independent confirmation.

--SingTel and Optus to combine three of its businesses

Singapore Telecommunications (SingTel) will combine three of its businesses with those of its Australian telco Optus: international carrier services, international network and international satellite business. The three international business units (IBUs) will be responsible for the SingTel group's operations globally. The creation of the new IBUs is in part of its effort to increase the combined strengths of the companies and reap the synergies of the merger.

--SK Corp. launches car navigation system using cellphones

SK Corp., Korea's largest oil refinery and parent of mobile service provider, SK Telecom, developed a car navigation system (CNS) using mobile communications handsets. The CNS system allows motorists to access global positioning services with nothing more than a mobile telephone. SK is in talks with car manufacturers to preinstall the Entrac system in new vehicles for the local market. The company estimates that the system, which comes with a small terminal, will cost no more than $160 and can be installed in any automobile.

--South Korea's cellphone sales market to increase by color handsets

According to the Information and Communication Ministry, cellphone sales in the Korean market should experience a boost by the availability color handsets able to take advantage of 3G services next year. Such series include video streaming offered by Korean operators over their cdma2000 1x networks. The ministry officials are forecasting sales of 14.7 million handsets next year compared with 14.4 million this year, with 48% of mobile subscribers expected to change their handsets next year compared with 45% this year. The ministry is predicting the market will pick up from the second quarter of the year when SK Telecom and Korea Telecom launch cdma2000 1x EV-DO services with peak data transmission speeds of 2.4 Mbps.

--Singapore Airlines puts in-flight e-mail service on hold

Singapore Airlines put its in-flight e-mail service on hold, saying its US-based service provider has had a change in business plans. The carrier announced in April it will spend $164 million over the next two years to outfit its planes with a system supplied by Tenzing Communications for passengers to access and send e-mails while in the air. The company has not ruled out reintroducing in-flight e-mail, but did not have any idea when that would be.

--Fujitsu sells US subsidiary division

Fujitsu sold a division of its US subsidiary, Fujitsu Business Communication Systems (FBCS), to Platinum for an unspecified amount. The company makes and markets PBX equipment used for in-house telecommunications networks including office switchboards. All 30 employees of the profit-making maintenance division will be transferred to Platnium Equity, a Los Angeles-based holding company that invests in telecom businesses.

BUSINESS

--Applied Materials to cut 1,700 employees

Applied Materials will cut 1,700 employees, or 10% of its work force, due to worst-ever year in the semiconductor industry. The job cuts include 450 employees at its Silicon Valley operations and 600 employees at its Austin, Texas operations. The company, which last month said fourth quarter profit dropped more than 90%, said it will take a first quarter restructuring charge.

--USA Networks and Vivendi Universal in talks on exchanging assets

Barry Diller, chairman of USA Networks, and Jean-Marie Messier, chairman of Vivendi Universal, are in talks aiming to exchange assets. Vivendi Universal has a 43% stake in USA Networks, while Diller has voting control of the company. They are nearing a deal that will allow Vivendi to bring together a global cable channel and television production business, while freeing Diller's USA Networks to build on his collection of online services and TV shopping businesses such as Home Shopping Network and Ticketmaster. The deal, which could come at the end of the year, is likely to involve an asset swap, rather than a multi-million dollar payment.

--Cable & Wireless to appeal fine for blocked international calling

Cable & Wireless will appeal a $600,000 fine imposed by regulators for blocking international connections to mobile phone users. Panama's Public Service Regulators ruled that the firm, the country's only land-line provider, had blocked access to incoming calls to local cellular networks between Aug. 10 and early September. The regulators said that was in breach of 1997 regulations governing the provision of telephone services.

DEALS

--Ericsson wins $55 million 3G deal from Inmarsat

Ericsson won a $55 million order to supply Inmarsat, a global satellite communications firm, with a 3G core network. Ericsson will be the sole supplier for Inmarsat's next generation core Broadband Global Area Network (B-GAN) planned for launch in 2004. The equipment to be delivered by Ericsson will enable connectivity to the fixed and mobile terrestrial phone and data networks in conjunction with Inmarsat's service providers.

--Time Warner Telecom wins high-speed data deals

Time Warner Telecom, partly owned by AOL Time Warner, won contracts to supply high-speed voice and data services to a health care provider and an electronic commerce software firm. Under the deal with Digital River, it will provide the company with Internet access through its fiber-optic network. It is Time Warner Telecom's first data center in Minneapolis. Time Warmer Telecom will combine its high-speed network with dense wave division multiplexing equipment that will allow Digital River to increase capacity on the fiber network, and use the fiber network more efficiently. In the second deal, Time Warner will provide telephone and Internet access to Capital District Physician's Health Plan. It won the contract over eight other bidders.

--APT Satellite and Alcatel Space industries in $118 million deal

APT Satellite Holdings said its wholly-owned unit, APT Satellite, entered an agreement to buy a satellite and related services from Alcatel Space Industries for $118 million. Alcatel Space will provide APT with the design, construction, testing and delivery of APSTAR VB, a high-powered and high capacity satellite. Transponder, telecommunications and broadcasting services provider APT said the price also included servicing costs of the launch campaign, on site support, training as well as costs of satellite simulator, satellite control center and baseband equipment. The delivery and launch of APSTAR VB was expected in July 2004.

EUROPE

--German cartel offices extends ruling on DT cable sale

The German cartel office extended a ruling on plans by Liberty Media to acquire the cable network assets of Deutsche Telekom for about two months. The planned $4.89 billion sale of the network is crucial to Deutsche Telekom's hopes of cutting its huge debt burden, and the former monopolist has been concerned that Liberty could pull out if regulators delay the deal. The federal cartel office extended the deadline on the procedure until February 28. The decision was originally expected on January 7.

--COLT Telecom offers customers wavelength control

COLT Telecom, a pan-European carrier, launched EuroWavelength, which the operator claims gives its customers the ability to manage their own wavelengths across COLT's European fiber network, the EuroLAN. The company said the service is available to more then 7,000 buildings in Europe, including more than 100 colocation centers, and allows other carriers, ISPs and large corporates to design and operate their own network. Each customer will get its own individual wavelength with transmission speeds up to 10 gigabits per second, a service made possible by COLT's deployment of dense wave division multiplexing (DWDM) equipment.

--Mediaset to sell its 9% stake in Blu to British Telecommunications

Mediaset, an italian broadcaster, will sell its 9% stake in Blu, the smallest of Italy's four Blu cellphone operators, to British Telecommunications (BT). Shareholders in Blu, which is controlled by Italian motorway operator Austrade and BT, have been trying to sell their stakes or the entire company. The stake is worth about $94.81 million.

--Turkey's Aycell plans launch of its commercial operations on December 14

Turkey's fourth mobile telephone network, Aycell, will launch its commercial operations on December 14. The company, which will operate on the 1,800 megahertz frequency, is owned by Turk Telekom, a state landline monopoly. It plans to invest $1.5 billion to bring most of the country into its network by the second half of 2002.

FINANCIAL REPORTS

--IDT reports $158.3 million net loss in first quarter

IDT reported a net loss of $158.3 million, or $2.22 per share, for the first quarter ended Oct. 31, compared with a profit of $869.6 million, or $11.27 per share, last year. Revenues increased to $339.2 million from $276.6 million. The company expects telecom revenues to remain flat next quarter and increase in second half of fiscal 2002. The results for the quarter included a non-cash, aftertax charge of $147 million, or $2.06 per share, writing down goodwill. Three other items added $22 million to the charges in the period. Excluding the charges, it posted a profit of $10.7 million, or 14 cents per share. Revenues increased sharply at its retail division, with consumer long-distance and prepaid calling cards providing much of the strength. The weakness in its venture capital unit and a 39% drop in wholesale carrier revenues affected the results.

--CenturyTel narrows 2001 earnings and revenue forecasts

CenturyTel, a rural telecommunications firm, lowered its 2001 earnings and revenue forecasts toward the lower end of the previously announced estimates. The company now expects to achieve diluted earnings per share of $1.53 to $1.57 during 2001, compared with its previous forecast of $1.52 to $1.62. It also expects to generate revenues of $2.1 billion to $2.12 billion for the year, compared with its previous forecast of $2.1 billion to $2.14 billion.

INTERNET

--Sum Microsystems and IBM security hole in software expose computers

A security hole in Sun Microsystems and IBM could allow hackers to take control of powerful servers running in many corporations and universities. Internet Security Systems researchers have uncovered evidence in Internet chat rooms that hackers have started developing tools to take advantage of the vulnerability. The vulnerability affects the latest release of Sun's operating system, Solaris 8, and earlier versions, as well as IBM's AIX version 4.3 and 5.1, according to an advisory issued by the Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT) at Carnegie Mellon University.

The hole is located in the login program that allows people to sign on to the operating system remotely by entering a username and password. The vulnerability can be exploited only if certain remote command protocols, such as Telnet, are enabled, which they usually are by default.

--Visionics opens Washington DC office in January, to increase work force by 6%

Visionics, an online face-recognition technology developer, will expand its work force by 6% to respond to increasing interest in biometric security from federal agencies after the Sept. 11 attacks. The company will open a Washington, DC office in January, to market its security products to federal agencies. It also plans to expand in Europe and market its system to border control authorities there. Visionics plans to add 15 new employees in Washington, DC, bringing its total work force to 250. The Washington office will handle marketing and project management duties for federal clients. In addition, the company expects fiscal 2002 revenues to be 35% to 50% greater than the $30.5 million in revenues in fiscal 2001.

--Yahoo offers $436 million bid for HotJobs

Yahoo made an unsolicited offer for HotJobs, an Internet careers site which is in negotiations to be taken over by TMP Worldwide, setting a scene for a takeover battle. Yahoo offered $436 million bid, in a move to reduce its dependence on online advertising, which still accounts for about 76% of revenues. HotJobs agreed in June to purchase HotJobs in all-stock deal initially valued at $460 million. However, because of a drop in TMP's stock since that time and the subsequent regulatory review, the value of that deal has fallen to $366 million.

LATIN AMERICA

--Brazil's Embratel requests local licenses from Anatel

Brazil's Embratel requested licenses from market regulator, Anatel, to operate local fixed-line services throughout the country. The company, which is controlled by WorldCom, said Anatel had 90 days to respond to its request. It is also waiting for Anatel to verify that it has met universal service targets that will give it permission to operate local services next year.

--Brazil Telecom pays $25 million for 12% stake in iBest, to launch portal and free Internet access

Brazil Telecom, a fixed-line telephone operator, bought a 12% stake in iBest, and will launch a portal and free Internet access. Brazil Telecom's Internet arm, BrT Servicos de Internet spent $25 million for the stake and has an option to purchase enough equity in the company to become its majority shareholder. The portal will be launched in Sao Paulo, the country's wealthiest market, on Dec. 18 and in Rio de Janeiro on Dec. 20. The company is forecasting revenues of $17 million for the portal in its first year and $35 million in the second.

MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS

--Palm to buy ThinAirApps for $19 million in Palm common stock

Palm will buy ThinAirApps, a private provider of wireless e-mail services, for $19 million in Palm common stock. ThinAirApps develops software and applications enabling secure wireless access to corporate e-mail and other important data. Palm said it sees most of ThinAirApps employees staying on with Palm, including the engineering team. Palm, a handheld computer maker, has been developing devices that are better suited for enterprise markets and that keep users easily linked to data in their offices.

--Scansoft completes purchase of speech technology assets of Lernout & Hauspie

Scansoft, a maker of digital imaging software, completed its purchase of the speech technology assets of Lernout & Hauspie, a Belgian company that filed for bankruptcy in November 2000 after accounting irregularities. The sale of Lernout's assets, including the Dragon speech recognition software, was approved by a federal bankruptcy court, which affirmed the results of a Nov. 26 bankruptcy auction despite a protest from SpeechWorks International. The company has already offered jobs to 200 of the 500 former Lernout employees. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

MOBILE & SATELLITE

--Logica and Orange in multimedia messaging services trials

Logica, a mobile messaging solutions developer, and Orange, a mobile operator, are in multimedia messaging services (MMS) trials across Orange's UK GPRS network. Its goal of the trial is to speed up development of messages that contain audio, picture, animation and real-time video, and help Orange evaluate potential market up take of such service sand their expected profitability. The Orange GPRS network already incorporates Logica's MMS Centre (MMSC) product.

NETWORK INFRASTRUCTURE

--Check Point Software Technologies and Nokia expand security deal

Check Point Software Technologies and Nokia have worked together for four years and are tightening the relationship in marketing, development and sales. Nokia will use Check Point's Virtual Private Network and firewall security technology, which is designed to prevent intruders from getting into a network, as the basis for all its Internet security appliances. The companies will offer an integrated security appliance by April.

PEOPLE IN THE NEWS

--Genesys Conferencing CEO of its North American operations resigns, will not be replaced

Genesys Conferencing, a provider of teleconferencing and Web-based meeting services, said that the chief executive of its North American operations, Kim Mayyasi, resigned and will not be replaced. In addition, Kailash Ambwani, the founder and former CEO of Astound, was named Genesys' chief strategy officer with responsibility for overseeing its technology development and partnerships with other companies.

--internap Network Services chief operating officer Mike Vent steps down

Internap Network Services' chief operating officer, Mike Vent, will no longer be serving the company. The company, a high-speed Internet-data services provider, determined that its chief operating officer position was not essential given Internap's size and focus on achieving profitability. Vent will continue with Internap during a transition period and his duties, including responsibilities as president, will be managed by chief executive, Gene Eldenberg, who also serves as the company's chairman.

REGULATORY

--SonicBlue files patent infringement lawsuit against TiVo

SonicBlue filed a patent infringement lawsuit against TiVo, saying TiVo's digital video recorder violates a patent granted to SonicBlue. The lawsuit, filed in federal court in California, adds to the escalating legal battles in the nascent digital video recording market. The production studios and television networks have sued SonicBlue, saying it violated the copyright on television programs. TiVo has been sued for patent infringement by Pause Technology.

--Former US Senator Malcolm Wallop urges Congress to reject massive giveaway to Bell companies

Former US Senator Malcolm Wallop called on members of Congress from both parties to reject the pending Tauzin-Dingell bill, which Wallop called a massive giveaway to the four giant regional Bell phone companies: SBC, Verizon, Bell South and Qwest/US West. The Tauzin-Dingell legislation, now approaching a vote in the House, will essentially eliminate the requirements in teh Telecom Act of 1996 that the Bell companies open their local service markets to competitors. Wallop, now chairman of the Frontiers of Freedom public interest group, said the Tauzin-Dingell legistlaiton will essentially reward teh Bells for their five years of non-compliance with the Telecom Act and give them legislative approval to continue with the remonopolization of the entire US telecom market.

WIRELESS

--Sprint PCS Group to offer downloadable ring tones

Sprint PCS Group is offering downloadable ring tones and graphics onto cell phones. The company will make 200 ring tones and graphics available to customers next week. They can be downloaded onto Sprint's 3 newest cellphone models. The company said it was unable to offer the feature on older phone models, because the service requires special technology in the phones. Customers will be charged $4 a month and can download up to eight ring tones and graphics. They can be downloaded from the wireless Web feature on the cell phones, or by accessing the Sprint PCS Web site on PCs.

--Arch Wireless seeks court approval to keep Motorola pact

Arch Wireless is seeking a court approval to continue its pager supply agreement with Motorola. In court papers, the company said its reorganization hinges on the expansion of its two-way messaging business and maintaining the traditional paging market. The court papers say revenue for 2002 is projected to decline to $857 million, down from an expected $1.1 billion for the fiscal year ending Dec. 31. Normally, Arch Wireless could obtain the contract with Motorola under the bankruptcy code, but in this case, a court approval is needed because the company has to pay off outstanding debts owed to Motorola. Arch Wireless argues that without the contract, its estate will suffer and Motorola will cease to do business with it, leaving the company without a new source of paging devices. The amount owed to Motorola is not listed in the company's motion.

--Boston-area average wireless phone rates drop 2.7% in October

The average wireless phone rates dropped in Greater Boston by 2.7% in October, the largest reduction among 25 big US cities. Boston for years has been more expensive than most other US cities that EconOne surveys. In October, the most recent data available, there was only an 8.3% spread between the costliest of the 25 cities for wireless service, Cincinnati, and the cheapest, Chicago. Boston ranked sixth of the 25.

EconOne compiled the average wireless price for each of the 25 cities by averaging carriers' rates for plans with 30, 150, 300, and 600 minutes of use. Boston's October average was $37.61, down 2.7% from September. That was the same price as Philadelphia and Washington, DC, and compared to $39.28 in Cincinnati, $37.51 in New York, $36.80 in Seattle, and $36.27 in Chicago. The national average was $37.39. EcoOne does not include its surveys Nextel, which is typically sold to business rather than consumers and costs more than others, because of its unique walkie-talkie feature, and WorldCom, which resells other carriers under its name. The firm acknowledged that rates change frequently and promotions and special deals make comparisons difficult.

INDIA

--Bharti may postpone IPO

Indian telecom major Bharti Televenture's plans to roll out the public offering by the end of January may have to be put off by a week or two. This is because the foreign investment promotion board (FIPB) of India deferred the proposal for two weeks. Although the department of telecommunications has supported the proposal, the finance ministry has sought certain clarifications. Sources said the company has adhered to all conditions in its foreign collaboration approval which stipulated that the foreign equity holding in the company should not exceed 49 percent at any level and the company would obtain an FIPB approval for all downstream investments.

--AirTel to use Nortel solution

AirTel wireless cellular service of Bharti group has selected solutions from Nortel Networks for a nationwide customer care contact center. Nortel Networks system integrator Network Solutions will implement the total solution, estimated to be worth approximately $5 million. Advanced call centers, staffed by 40 to 100 agents, will serve each of the 15 cellular circles, including 8 new circles, for which Bharti Mobility has recently acquired licenses, said a Nortel press release. Nortel Networks flexible, scalable call center solution will help leverage interactive voice processing capabilities to manage large volumes of incoming calls in minimum waiting-time, as well as integrate telephony, fax, Web and e-mail systems with desktop computers, to empower agents with critical customer information all major factors in providing prompt, efficient and differentiating customer care.

--Sasken plans expansion

Telecom software services and solutions major Sasken Communications Technologies Ltd is planning to invest $21.2 million on expansion. The company also plans to float an IPO in a couple of years and launch a slew of products. The chairman and managing director of Sasken, Rajiv C Mody, said the expansion of the second phase will be funded through internal accruals. The company was recently in the news after announcing a 20 percent salary cut. The land acquisition for the second phase has already started and the 150,000 sq ft facility is likely to be ready in two years. Commenting on the IPO plans, he said: "At present, the market is in bad shape and telecom is not doing too well. Investors would be jittery to invest in a telecom company. We would be going in for an IPO whenever there is an upswing in the market, but it won't be before 2003."

SPECIAL REPORTS

--Telecom technology and market planning; fiber optic network planning and engineering

Holiday's Holiday Horoscope

(A collection of predictions for the New Year by Clifford Holliday, an IGI analyst and author of the Lightwave Series. Intended for your information and, in some cases, amusement.)

1. Internet traffic will grow at a rate of between 100%-50% a year. It will continue to be driven primarily by residential growth (both in quantity and in average throughput) but braodband business use and increasing transatlantic traffic will also become more important. internet growth will be the driver of the telecommunications market.

High-speed access (cable plus xDSL) demand will continue and will set new records for subscriber growth - if you don't find a new way to suppress demand.

Cable companies will extend their lead in high-speed access customers and will move aggressively and successfully with packages (digital entertainment, high-speed access and IP voice) in the residential area.

2. The telecommunications market in general will begin to improve, with definite 'up ticks' coming mid-year.

Metro markets will be the growth area of the entire telecommunications market, driven by the needs for connectivity of hte long-haul carriers and the high-speed access market. The need for business high-speed connectivity will start to become important.

Hiring will resume in the telecommunications industry as the market begins to recover, and vendors realize they have overreacted with job cuts.

Metro markets and some residential deployment will begin to retrun the fiber cable market back to some robustness, but not to year 2000 levels.

3. Increases will come in M & A ( merger and acquisition) activities as valuation levels start to improve for some of the telecommunications companies.

Leverage opportunities will present themselves in companies that are slow to show improving valuations.

There will be a major merger of two of the top telecom equipment providers.

A major ILEC will buy a major IXC. The deal will past muster at the Justice Department and the FCC.

4. Long-haul carriers particularly, but all carriers to a great extent, are going to emphasize investments that reduce cost or improve provisioning capabilities (or both) rather than just achieve capacity increases.

By the end of 2002, there will be an announced commercial offering of a large-scale, all optical switch capable of wavelength translation (a WIXC - a Wavelength Interchanging Cross-Connect). This technology will become a stable of long-haul systems, but not until after 2002.

OEO switches will be standard components of metro networks by year-end.

5. Life is not giong to get any easier for the remaining CLECs.

The regulatory climate is not going to improve for the CLECs, and bad business models are goign to continue to be punished.

The big companies are goign to get bigger and more powerful - particularly the ILECs and the largest cable companies.

There are going to be very few independent xDSL providers and there will only be a few remaining large ISPs.

These predictions and much more can be found in IGIC's latest "Lightwave Post 9-11": "Analysis of the impact of the downturn, and effects of September 11th."

IGI BOOKS

--Practical Data Communications by Roger L. Freeman

A tutorial that takes a hands-on approach to network design and management aimed at ensuring the optimal implementation of data communications, for telecommunications professionals with little basic training in the practical aspects of designing and operating data communications systems. The discussion of data network enhancements and design is built upon a thorough introduction of generic and specific data networks, focusing at length on transmission limitations, protocols and how they work, and questions of standards and related topics.

2001, 850 pages, USD $169.95 + shipping

To order this book or to find out more information about other books, click here.